A look back
- Stocks surged as the S&P 500 gained 3.4% to snap a five-week losing streak while international developed markets rose 3.0%. The communication services and technology sectors led the rally after struggling in recent weeks; energy stocks took a breather but are still up roughly 34% in 2026.
- Yields reversed course and provided a tailwind for equities. The 10-year yield dropped 0.09% to close Friday at 4.35% and the 2-year yield fell 0.07% to 3.85%. Gold rebounded, up 4% on the week.
- The March jobs report headlined last week’s economic calendar. The data came in stronger than expected, as the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% and the economy added 178,000 jobs.
A look ahead
- Inflation will take center stage as Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, will be released along with the Consumer Price Index. The data will be closely watched following Friday’s strong jobs report. As of Monday morning, markets were pricing in just a 12% probability of a rate cut in 2026.
- Focus will remain on the Middle East conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. Investors will consider how potential de-escalation or progress in negotiations will impact energy markets and supply chains.
- Economic Releases: Durable Goods, FOMC Minutes, Core PCE, GDP, CPI, Treasury Budget.
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